Better than most

Hudson Valley escapes worst
of state's downturn

ALBANY — The Hudson Valley, buoyed by a strong housing market, the continuing spread of suburbia and a diversified economy, is a bright ribbon of relative prosperity in New York's generally drab economic fabric.

But economists warn that the good times can't continue to roll indefinitely in the region unless New York City recovers its vitality. And the more the rest of the upstate economy sinks, the more taxpayers in the Hudson Valley will be called on to shoulder more of the Empire State's burden.

"I think we're at risk,'' said Ann Davis, the director of the Bureau of Economic Research at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, who studies the regional economy. "A lot of the attractiveness we have is we're close to the city but not in it. … To the extent New York City is vulnerable, so are we.''

But for now, most areas in the valley, stretching on either side of the Hudson River for almost 150 miles from Westchester and Rockland counties to just south of Albany, are prospering, at least relative to the rest of the state.

The region gained about 22,600 jobs in the year that ended on June 30, a growth rate of 2 percent, according to figures from the Marist economic-research bureau. During the same period, jobs statewide were flat while New York City lost more than 72,000 jobs, or about 2 percent of its total.

"People are moving into the area seeking affordable housing," said Sean McDonald, who analyzes regional economic trends for the state Labor Department in White Plains, adding that low interest rates have spurred that trend. That has led to a growth in demand for workers like lawyers, tax accountants, real estate brokers and others who serve home buyers and sellers.

"There's still some movement up the Hudson Valley," said James Parrott, an economist with the Fiscal Policy Institute, a labor-backed think tank. "There are more people commuting from Orange and Dutchess into the city.''

But like the rest of the state, the area has also lost some high-paying manufacturing jobs — about one-third since the recent peak of 96,700 in 1990. Much of that is the result of IBM job cuts, which has left thousands of people scrambling.

Jacqueline Tortora, 44, of Beacon is another longtime IBM employee who was laid off last year. After 23 years at IBM, she now works for the Dutchess County comptroller, at a salary sharply reduced from the $40,000 she was making before.

Last year was the second time she had been laid off by IBM, having gone through the same thing eight years earlier.

"In '94, I took it personally. Now I know it's just he way of the world,'' she said, pronouncing herself fortunate that she shares a house with her mother and has no children to support.

"I'm young enough to put in 20 years with the county,'' she said.

Others are hoping for long careers at IBM, which invested more than $2 billion in a new chip-building plant in East Fishkill.

But Davis pointed out that the chip plant lost money last year.

"The tech (business) cycle hasn't turned yet,'' she said. "They're still suffering from competition from Asia,'' as are companies all over the state.

© 2003, Gannett News Service